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COLUMBUS — Concerned about Ohio State’s backup quarterback situation, with true freshman Luke Fahey and second-year player Tavien St. Clair competing this week to replace the injured Julian Sayin and start against USC on on Oct. 31?

Welcome to college football this season. Backup quarterbacks have been playing all over the place, and it often has been an adventure.

How many backup quarterbacks have been forced to start for power conference teams in 2026? How have they fared? What were their pedigrees as No. 2 QBs? And … exactly how many have been true freshmen?

As Ohio State prepares to place its fate in the hands of a quarterback who has never started a college game, here’s an extensive breakdown of how many backups have played this season and how much they’ve won.

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COLUMBUS — Here’s a mailbag with some of the questions remaining from Sunday Soundoff.

At the midpoint in the season, who is the best QB in the Big Ten? And is that guy just mid? — Dr. Welcing

Pass.

Wait, you still want an answer?

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COLUMBUS — What now? Bill and I shared our thoughts in a live YouTube show Tuesday night on what we think happens next with Ohio State’s quarterbacks. An encapsulation of my thoughts on the Ohio State quarterback situation would be:

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1. I’m glad Ryan Day said Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair will compete for the job for at least a few days. There doesn’t seem to be a downside to that. The competition has a chance to bring out the best in both of them, and not giving St. Clair at least a look right now would be a mistake, I think.

2. I think Fahey will wind up being the starter against USC. He was No. 2 for a reason, and I think Day and the staff like everything about him, while wishing he was a little bigger (he’s listed at 5-foot-11 and 205 pounds.)

3. It’s not that St. Clair can’t do this. It’s that he hasn’t shown it yet. The circumstances have changed. Maybe St. Clair figured he was a shoo-in to hold off a journeyman veteran (Justyn Martin) and a true freshman for the No. 2 job. Maybe there wasn’t an urgency to his performance previously. This is as urgent as it gets. Maybe it brings something out of him. Big maybe. Very big.

4. It’s the question I asked of Day and his answer confirmed it in my mind. If the situation was filling in for Sayin for a few weeks, it’s Fahey. If it’s playing QB for the rest of the year, you need to give the upside guy, St. Clair, a look. While Day said they have a plan for Sayin to either miss the regular season or to miss the entire season, playoff included, operating under the assumption that Sayin won’t play again until the 2027 season feels reasonable.

   Ohio State is looking for a national title quarterback.

5. I think Ohio State can find a way through this. I also think there will be a bump. A real clunker of a QB performance in the first game or two wouldn’t be a shock. I’d also put down my prediction for the regular season at 10-2 at the moment.

   Here’s the show from Tuesday night if you missed it.

• Apple Podcasts

Now, some questions for you.

It can be a pretty complicated question.

On this edition of our Wednesday subscriber show, it’s time to re-rank the best Buckeyes seven games into the regular season. There is a lot of movement from the preseason, when we did our first list for this season. The discussion includes trying to put Julian Sayin into context as his 2026 season as a Buckeye very possibly has come to an end.

Also, there’s Whatcha on pumpkin festivals, closet conversions, pepperoni under cheese on a pizza, Wendy’s problems and more.

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COLUMBUS — Ohio State starting quarterback Julian Sayin, who was injured in the fourth quarter against Indiana on Saturday, is out indefinitely, Ohio State coach Ryan Day said after practice Tuesday night. Day said the Buckeyes are preparing plans for Sayin to miss the entire regular season, or to miss the entire season, including the College Football Playoff.

The Ohio State head coach said immediately after the game that Sayin would probably be out for several weeks. In a brief radio appearance Monday, Day said the quarterback was undergoing tests.

This is a even more serious assessment for Sayin.

Sayin is 18-3 as a starter over a season-and-a-half, throwing 52 touchdown passes against 12 interceptions in his career while completing 73.4 percent of his passes and averaging 267 passing yards as a starter.

The consensus No. 2 quarterback recruit in the Class of 2024, Sayin committed to Alabama, but transferred to Ohio State in January 2024 after the retirement of Nick Saban. He won the job in his second year in Columbus and was a Heisman Trophy finalist last year.

He was also playing likely the worst game of his OSU career against the Hoosiers, completing 15 of 29 passes for 235 yards, with two touchdowns, two interceptions and three sacks before the injury.

On a first-down play, Ohio State right tackle Phillip Daniels was beaten outside by Indiana defensive tackle Mario Landino. Landino’s hit from Sayin’s right, as Sayin was looking to throw left, compressed Sayin’s elbow at an awkward angle.

That leaves the Buckeyes staging a quarterback battle before playing at USC on Oct. 31. Immediately after the loss, Day spoke as if true freshman Luke Fahey, who had clearly been the No. 2 quarterback, would take over for Sayin.

Tuesday, he indicated a quarterback battle between Fahey and second-year QB Tavien St. Clair is at hand. The Buckeyes have an extra week off to figure out a QB plan. Day said without the bye, the Buckeyes would have to roll with Fahey.

“Now that we have the bye week both these guys are going to get a lot of reps,” Day said. “We’re going to start to put together a plan on how we’re going to move forward, and we’re gonna play the guy that gives us the best chance to win.

“We’ll get both these guys some reps and get an idea of how these next couple of days go.”

It’s reasonable to consider the circumstances and how they have evolved from Sayin missing several weeks, as was the case Saturday.

If this decision was a QB to get the Buckeyes through until Sayin returns, Fahey would be the answer as a young player who can run the offense. If the decision is who has a chance to lead the Buckeyes to a national title, which appears may be the case, then the upside of St. Clair as a 6-foot-4, former 5-star recruit enters the equation.

Sayin will be out for a long time. A quarterback battle to replace him is underway.

COLUMBUS — Ohio State picked up a top-five road win on Saturday at Indiana. Here’s what stood out on a second look.

1. Matt Patricia turned up the gas in a major way when it fell to the defense to make sure the Buckeyes left Bloomington with a win.

Indiana had nine combined third- and fourth-down attempts in the second half and converted only three. On those nine plays, Patricia called a zero blitz (man coverage with no deep safety and everyone else rushing the quarterback) four times. The notoriously conservative coordinator has been more aggressive since a bend-but-don’t-break style proved the Buckeyes’ undoing against Texas, but this was another level. Frankly, it’s a welcome change.

Patricia first showed a zero blitz on third-and-10 in the third quarter. Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover was forced into a short throw that Jay Timmons tackled. On the next play, Patricia kept his foot on the gas and sent seven on fourth-and-4, and Jaylen McClain got a free run at Hoover to produce a sack-fumble.

The Buckeyes had crowded the line similarly earlier in the game, but dropped out and sent only four rushers. This time, Patricia sent the house.

When the Hoosiers threatened to take the lead late, Patricia called an all-out pressure on the final two plays as an aggressive last stand — a stark departure from how things ended at Texas in September. The Hoosiers tried a quarterback draw on third-and-4, and Hoover had nowhere to run other than into the arms of a waiting Beau Atkinson for no gain.

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Among the subscriber questions addressed on this show:

• Just exactly how well is freshman Jay Timmons playing?

• Can the Buckeyes do something other than move Jermaine Mathews inside and put Cam Calhoun at outside corner when Timmons is hurt?

• How did the chaos of Saturday, with No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Notre Dame, No. 6 Alabama and No. 7 Texas all losing, in addition to the No. 4 Buckeyes beating No. 5 Indiana and No. 3 Miami being pushed into double overtime, affect our view of the Buckeyes’ win?

• What could Luke Fahey look like as a red-zone quarterback?

• How was the OSU run defense Saturday as the Buckeyes held Indiana to 73 yards on 29 carries, a 2.5-yard average?

• What was with some of the defensive personnel late in the game?

• Why do the OSU red-zone issues continue?

• What’s the biggest difference between Fahey and Julian Sayin?

• Should Ryan Day give Tavien St. Clair another shot at competing for the job in the next week weeks?

• Landis has a strong take on the Ohio State cornerbacks.

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BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Ryan Day smiled at least five different times during his 10-minute postgame news conference Saturday, I think, the joy of victory breaking through every other emotion more than once. It makes sense.

In his 101st game as Ohio State’s head coach, Day saw the Buckeyes pull their greatest escape on his watch. He and his team had been on the other side many times, the moments when you felt you could have, should have won and didn’t.

Clemson in the 2019 playoff. Georgia in 2022 playoff. Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game last season. Texas this year.

Let someone else wear that feeling for a day. Curt Cignetti had never lost a close game like this as the head coach at Indiana, and he did seem to take things in stride.

“Well, sun comes up tomorrow,” he said to start his postgame news conference.

It will. It’ll shine a little brighter in Columbus.

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BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Ohio State offensive lineman Luke Montgomery got into the huddle with 7:38 left in the fourth quarter, with his team leading Indiana by four points. It was second-and-28 from the Buckeyes’ 44-yard line, and Montgomery was staring into the eyes of 5-foot-11 true freshman quarterback Luke Fahey.

What did he see?

“Just a baller,” Montgomery said.

On the next snap, Fahey felt pressure, climbed the pocket, scrambled for eight yards, and then took a late hit from a defender at the end of the play, tacking on another 15 yards and moving the ball to the Indiana 33. It felt like the start of something — maybe something magical — with this kid in the game for the injured Julian Sayin and OSU trying to close out a top-five win on the road.

And then … the Buckeyes ran it twice for two yards combined, took a holding penalty on third down, and put Fahey into a third-and-forever that ended with him skipping a throw along the turf to Brandon Inniss, forcing OSU to punt back to Indiana. The “origin story” moment was fleeting. Fahey played 10 snaps in relief of the injured Sayin, went 0-for-2 on his official pass attempts, including a misfire on a screen that hit the back of an offensive lineman’s helmet. He took an intentional grounding penalty.

Ohio State won. Fahey held on for dear life more than he led a triumphant moment in a key win.

“As you can imagine, it’s a tough spot for him to come into,” head coach Ryan Day said afterward. “I think it was moving fast for him there.”

Fahey will get another shot at it.

Sayin will be down for “several weeks” with an injury to his right throwing arm. He left in the fourth quarter after getting hit while trying to throw. He went to the locker room and later returned with his arm in a sling. The Buckeyes are off next week and then head on the road to USC. Fahey, a SoCal kid from Mission Viejo, is expected to make his first career start back closer to home.

“I don’t think the moment is too big for him,” Day said. “It just got a little fast for him (Saturday). If he had a few more drives, I think he would’ve found the speed of the game.”

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On a day when Georgia, Alabama, Texas all lost, the victory for the Buckeyes carried even more weight. But it came with a cost, as Ryan Day said quarterback Julian Sayin will miss at least several weeks with an injury to his right throwing arm or shoulder.

A lot happened. Bill and Doug were there and broke it down on this live postgame show.

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BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Ohio State beat Indiana 19-15 on Saturday.

Somehow.

That included playing the last part of the game without starting quarterback Julian Sayin, who hurt his throwing arm on a sack with about eight minutes to play. He was back on the sideline before the end of the game with his right arm in a sling.

Ryan Day said after the win that Sayin will be out several weeks. He didn’t specify the injury and said he didn’t have any more information at this point. The Buckeyes are off next week before a trip to USC and coming back home against Oregon.

True freshman Luke Fahey came in the game on a second-and-28 and scrambled for eight yards and drew a personal foul penalty while sliding down. Suddenly, the Buckeyes had a first down again.

Fahey then threw two passes and didn’t complete either, but the Buckeyes were able to hang on.

Sayin finished 15 of 29 for 235 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Devin Sanchez says he has two opponents on game day.

“It’s just me playing with a chip on my shoulder,” Ohio State’s sophomore cornerback said this week, “and knowing that I’ve got to go out here and play the opposing team and the refs.”

I don’t think Sanchez should change much of what he’s doing, and it doesn’t sound like he’s planning to. (Slightly less grabby should suffice.) If he thinks officials are making his life difficult, that’s probably better than believing he needs to back off his aggressiveness.

Sanchez (6-foot-2, 199 pounds) and Jermaine Mathews (5-11, 195) vs. Indiana receivers Charlie Becker (6-4, 208) and Nick Marsh (6-3, 210) is a fantastic matchup in this Ohio State-Indiana Top 5 showdown. Becker is a potential Top 10 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft and Marsh is viewed as a first-rounder as well.

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As Ohio State heads to Indiana for another Top 5 matchup, Bill and Doug have dug deep into this game and what to expect. Here are all of the articles and podcasts from Bill and Doug heading into this revenge game for the Buckeyes.

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My article pick this week

My podcast pick this week

Ohio State vs. Indiana Big Game Breakdown: Diving into Buckeyes vs. Hoosiers on both sides of the ball and making picks, plus Whatcha

Other podcasts this week

• Sunday Soundoff Late Night: Offensive line, Indiana revenge, Julian Sayin and more (Subscriber only)

• Ohio State vs. Indiana picks and preview: Ja’Kobi Jackson out, replacing last year’s talent

• Ohio State run game, roster-building lessons from Indiana, Buckeyes-Hoosiers coaching chess match

• Ohio State in the red zone vs. Indiana, plus offensive line plans and yes, a little Legend Bey

• Betting the Buckeyes: How TShoe’s numbers break down Ohio State-Indiana, plus a way to bet the OSU two-minute drill (Subscriber only)

• Ohio State revenge factor vs. Indiana, plus Buckeyes first-half MVPs: Around the Shoe

• BAD OT Show after Ohio State beats Maryland (Subscriber only)

• Ohio State beats Maryland 45-16: Live postgame reaction

If you want more national College football content, check out The Podcast of Northern Aggression

Other articles this week

• What’s the deal with Ohio State’s offensive line heading into the Indiana game?

• Ohio State vs. Indiana: Game theories and picks for the Buckeyes vs. Hoosiers, plus polls on your picks

• This Ohio State-Indiana rematch will be played somewhat in the shadow of the players gone from last year

• Ryan Day Debrief: Ohio State’s offensive line status, lessons from last year’s Indiana game

• Lessons from Indiana’s five sacks against Ohio State last year

• Eddrick Houston playing his best, and the Buckeyes should be ready to play him more

• Ohio State Game Prep: Buckeyes to watch, gameday plans, things we want to see

• Defensive thoughts as Ohio State beats Maryland: Eddrick Houston, Cincere Johnson and some solid special teams play

• Offensive thoughts as Ohio State beats Maryland: Buckeyes get by with patchwork O-line, Jeremiah Smith makes wow plays

COLUMBUS — Every Friday we’ll bring you a quick-hit look at the game ahead for the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Ohio State at Indiana

Kickoff: Noon

Network: Fox

Announcers: Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt, Jenny Taft

History: Ohio State leads the all-time series 81-13-5. The Buckeyes had won 30 straight before the Hoosiers’ victory in the Big Ten Championship Game last year.

Info: Ohio State game notes & Indiana game notes

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Game trailer

Buckeye I’ll be watching Saturday

RT Phillip Daniels: It's great that Ohio State is getting him back, especially now with the unexpected absence of Austin Siereveld. But you have to be a little worried about Daniels being rusty in this game after being on the shelf for more than a month. I thought Daniels played well against Texas the last time we saw him, but this is a big ask to pick up right where he left off. Indiana was strategic in attacking the right side of OSU's offensive line last year because it viewed Tegra Tshabola as the weak link. I wouldn't call Daniels a weak link, but I'm expecting Indiana to target him early to see how his legs are after so much time off. — Bill

Slot Jay Timmons: Welcome back, freshman. After playing 78 percent of the snaps against Texas, Timmons went out with an injury in the second half against Illinois and missed the Iowa and Maryland games. Indiana is in 11 personnel constantly, so expect a healthy Timmons to be on the field a lot against the Hoosiers. Indiana’s slot receivers aren’t a threat — Davion Chandler and Tyler Morris have combined for 15 catches on 26 targets while outside receivers Nick Marsh and Charlie Becker have combined for 59 catches on 82 targets. But that just frees up the speedy Timmons to blitz a little more often. He has come after the quarterback four times this season and created pressure three times. How about four more shots at getting after Josh Hoover in this game alone? — Doug

One thing I want Ohio State to do Saturday

Cut it loose on defense against Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover. Matt Patricia tends to get conservative against quarterbacks who have some scrambling potential. That plan worked until it didn't against Texas. Ohio State's defense doesn't need to go all-out blitz on Hoover all game, but Patricia needs to dial up the aggression some to make sure his defense is getting off the field on third down. — Bill

Get to tempo in the first quarter and try to get Julian Sayin locked into the game with some offensive urgency. We see it in the two-minute drill, and Ryan Day has acknowledged they could bring that into other parts of the game at times. Bill has also pointed out how the Hoosiers lost the two biggest brains on their defense in Aiden Fisher and D’Angelo Ponds. So give Sayin a chance to get the Hoosiers on their heels early. — Doug

Another game to watch with Ohio State in mind

Nebraska at Oregon, 11 PM, Fox: Can the Ducks get off the mat? Are the Cornhuskers dangerous? Nebraska almost beat Indiana last week. If it hangs with Oregon (or even just looks competitive again), then Ohio State's trip to Lincoln before the Michigan game will have my full attention. — Bill

Stat to know

Indiana hasn’t lost the turnover battle in 30 straight games dating back to a September 2024 win over Maryland. That was Curt Cignetti’s second Big Ten game with the Hoosiers in which Indiana turned it over four times and still won by two scores. That streak includes Ohio State’s 38-15 win over the Hoosiers in 2024 when both teams turned it over once. According to Indiana, it’s the longest streak of its kind in FBS football since at least 1995.

But Indiana’s overall turnover edge is way down this year. The Hoosiers were plus-22 in turnovers last season, which led the nation, and are only plus-three so far this year. In Indiana’s win over Northwestern, neither team turned it over. Against Nebraska, the Cornhuskers had one turnover and the Hoosiers none. In last year’s Big Ten title game, both the Buckeyes and Hoosiers turned it over once.

In their three-game playoff run last year, the Hoosiers had a 5-0 turnover advantage.

This season, Indiana hasn’t thrown an interception and has lost one fumble. The Hoosiers have four interceptions on defense.

Ohio State has turned it over six times, but that includes three picks by backup quarterbacks and one by Julian Sayin on the last-play desperation throw against Texas. So it’s really only two turnovers.

Meanwhile, Ohio State has forced eight turnovers — four picks and four fumbles.

That’s quite a streak by Indiana. The turnover battle matters a lot. So keep in mind eight turnovers forced by Ohio State this year compared to four by Indiana. — Doug

Uniform Look

Indiana crowd plan

Lines

Ohio State -3.5

Over-under 50.5

Picks

Bill: Ohio State 28-21

Doug: Ohio State 28-17

On the season

Bill: 5-1 straight up, 3-3 spread, 3-3 over-under

Doug: 6-0 straight up, 2-4 spread, 3-3 over-under

Your vote

Indiana will win: 13 percent

Ohio State will win by 3 points or fewer: 23 percent

Ohio State will win by 4 points or more: 65 percent

Combined score of 51 points or more: 32 percent

Combined score of 50 points or fewer: 68 percent

Tracking network and kickoff times for the season

Network

Fox: 3

BTN: 2

ABC: 1

CBS: 1

Announcers

Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt: 3

Jeff Levering, Jake Butt: 1

Mark Followill, Jake Butt: 1

Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit: 1

Brad Nessler, Charles Davis: 1

Kickoff time

Noon: 3

12:30: 1

3:30: 1

4:15: 1

7:30: 1

Also

• Since the start of Ryan Day’s tenure in 2019, Ohio State has 29 road wins, which is tied for the most in the nation.

• Indiana is getting the Ohio State Big Noon treatment. This is the Hoosiers’ fourth game, and third home game, at noon. Their trip to Michigan next week is also a noon game on Fox.

• Jeremiah Smith needs one touchdown catch to tie Michigan’s Braylon Edwards at 39 for the most by a Big Ten receiver.

• Indiana’s 22-game winning streak is the longest by a Big Ten team since Ohio State won 24 straight in 2012 and 2013.

• Indiana blocked a punt against Rutgers and has blocked a total of 10 punts and kicks since 2024, tied for the most in the nation.

An interesting point made by TShoe — the sports books are not eager to take bets on the Buckeyes at only -3. According to the Vegasinsider.com line movement chart, this line was Ohio State -1.5 in the summer, but it got to -4 very early in the week. It dropped to 3.5 and then hit Ohio State -3 twice, but it didn’t stay at that number for longer than 90 minutes. If you got Ohio State -3, great. But this has settled at 3.5.

The TShoe Index has Ohio State as favored by 1.5, with a total of around 50. So a predicted score by those measures would be around 26-24 Ohio State.

As for other bets,

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COLUMBUS — Ohio State and Indiana will meet on Saturday for the first time since the Hoosiers beat the Buckeyes in last year’s Big Ten Championship. In that game last December, Indiana sacked Ohio State five times. It was the first warning sign for an offense that hadn't faced many elite rushing groups for much of the 2025 season and then struggled in back-to-back losses to Indiana and Miami.

Both the Hoosiers and Buckeyes have seen roster changes since last year, but many faces in the matchup between the Indiana defense and Ohio State offense remain the same. The Hoosiers’ defense is still led by coordinator Bryant Haines, arguably the sport's best defensive play-caller right now.

So there are lessons from Indiana's five sacks last year that can apply to Saturday’s game in Bloomington, Ind.

Let’s dive in.

First sack: Third-and-5 from the Indiana 46 in the first quarter

This just so happens to be the first sack of the game, but if I were ranking the types of sacks Ohio State most needs to avoid on Saturday, this would be at the top of the list.

The Buckeyes cannot afford dead plays when they pick up the protection correctly.

Indiana runs a lot of games along the defensive line, but it doesn’t actually blitz (send more than four rushers) all that often. The pre-snap key for the quarterback and offensive line is to determine which players lined up near the line are rushing and which are dropping. Here, Ohio State gets it right. The Buckeyes set a three-man slide to the left while leaving the right guard and right tackle to block one-on-one after identifying that the defensive end on the right side is dropping out.

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COLUMBUS — It’s almost time for the first Top 5 matchup in the history of Indiana’s Memorial Stadium.

Here are the game theories for No. 4 Ohio State at No. 5 Indiana on Saturday.

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Game theory from Bill

Pick: Ohio State 28, Indiana 21

Indiana needs explosive plays to win a game like this, and the one constant through Matt Patricia's time in Columbus is that his defense doesn't allow them. It's not as simple as that, of course, but that quality is what gives me confidence in the Buckeyes' ability to do what's needed on defense against an offense with premier weapons. I'm putting a lot of faith in OSU's coordinator pairing here, Patricia to keep Indiana grounded and Arthur Smith to have the plan the Buckeyes need to finish drives.

If OSU only gets 2.5 points per red zone trip, which is what happened last year, it probably won't win.

There's a script in which Ohio State does limit Indiana's explosives that still worries me, and that's the one where the Hoosiers still hold the ball long enough to limit the at-bats for Ohio State's offense. Patricia will need to strike the correct balance between bend-but-don't-break and timely aggression that gets his defense off the field when it's time to get off the field. His unit struggled with the latter in the Week 2 road loss at Texas. I'm expecting that lessons were learned then. I'm also expecting some well-timed blitzes from Jay Timmons and Earl Little that help the defense get stops.

I saw Indiana linebacker Isaiah Jones say they weren't going to let Jeremiah Smith beat them. The way Indiana does that is not by limiting Smith himself, but by getting after Julian Sayin and disrupting the timing of Ohio State's passing attack. The Buckeyes know this, and I'm expecting a plan that uses heavy play-action and pocket movement to get Sayin into spots where he can deliver the ball to Smith. If some of Indiana's earlier games this year are any indication, Nate Roberts and Mason Williams could be surprising contributors. When OSU finally started to crack Indiana's defense last year, the tight ends got involved.

You're right to be concerned about Ohio State's offensive line in this matchup, especially without Austin Siereveld. Nobody has said this, but I think the entire offseason for that group was about getting back to this game and performing better than it did last year. I expect them to.

If special teams become a factor, meaning it comes down to someone having to make a big kick, I wouldn't feel great about OSU's chances. But behind Smith, Sayin and an offensive line looking to change minds and hearts, I don't think it comes down to that.

Game theory from subscriber Brandon N. of Wooster, Ohio

Pick: Ohio State 31, Indiana 24

As I began writing this Game Theory, I thought I knew exactly where to take this. However, I opened up Substack and saw that the wonderful Bill Landis was reporting that not only is Austin Siereveld unavailable, but so is Ja’kobi Jackson. OSU will now be without their best offensive lineman and (debatably) their most effective RB. This gave me pause and combined with the anxiety every OSU fan feels before a big game, I wasn’t sure what to write.

I then did what all football fans do, and I texted my football-loving buddy (who is also an OSU grad) and told him my situation and asked his thoughts. We realized that Vegas hadn’t moved the line, and honestly, as smart as I think I am, I’m still way dumber than Vegas. With that thought in mind, I poured myself a glass of bourbon (that was for you Rob) and got in the lab.

Now the thing I’ve noted the most about Indiana, as most others have, is that they are crazy explosive. Every time I’ve flipped to an Indiana game, it’s been a 50-yard run or a 50-yard pass. But even given their explosive nature, I didn’t think that any of their final scores matched what the box score would tell you. That’s what they call inefficiency.

Even though I’m sure OSU has prepared for it, the explosive Indiana offense strikes first. On the opening possession of the game, the OSU defensive line plays a little too much hero ball, failing to maintain their gaps and allowing Turbo Richard to break a 58-yard touchdown run. Old habits die hard.

On the following possession, OSU starts off with a few solid Bo Jackson runs and a nice RPO to No. 4 that makes it seem like the OSU offense is going to have a big day. But the run game stalls out and Julian Sayin gets sacked on the game’s first big third down due to (and I’m sure you guessed it) the offensive line not picking up the movement of the Indiana defense. OSU punts — again, old habits die hard.

On Indiana’s second possession, OSU tightens up the run defense some and forces a third and medium early in the drive. But another big play strikes as Indiana gets Nick Marsh one-on-one in the slot with a safety, resulting in a big touchdown throw from Josh Hoover, giving people flashbacks to the Arch Manning interception that should have been 6 points early in the Texas game.

It’s 14-0 Hoosiers. For a third time, a familiar issue bites OSU.

As you are reading this, you might be thinking to yourself “this guy stinks,” as it looks like I’m predicting a Hoosiers blowout win. But here’s where I reveal the title of my theory: “The Reverse Texas.” (Safe for work, I promise.)

Just as the game seems to be getting out of hand, Sayin leads a methodical drive down to the Indiana 12-yard line, where OSU stalls out and settles for a field goal, but the Buckeyes stop the bleeding. The OSU defense then starts to get their stuff together, holding Indiana scoreless for the rest of the half. While the defense settles in, the offense continues to search for answers.

That changes when OSU gets the ball back with 1:45 left on the clock. As they have done all year, Sayin leads the offense down the field in the two-minute drill, but this time they punch it in with a slant to Devin McCuin. OSU gets the spark it needs, and it’s 14-10 Hoosiers at half.

The second half opens with the OSU offense getting the ball, and unlike other games this year, they hit the ground running. Highlighted by a big 20-yard burst by none other than Legend Bey, the Buckeyes put another one in the end zone to make it 17-14. Indiana responds with a long, methodical drive of its own, but the OSU defense holds, forcing an IU field goal. It’s 17-17 — tie game.

From there on, it’s all Buckeyes. Sayin finally has his coming out moment in a marquee matchup, and as the OSU offensive line did against Penn State in 2024, he drops his nuts. (Editor’s note: Brandon!)

Sayin feeds Jeremiah consistently, getting him over the 100-yard mark and throwing another touchdown to add to his Heisman campaign. Bo Jackson punches in another score in the fourth quarter to put an exclamation point on the game. Indiana finds a way to get another touchdown powered by Charlie Becker and an untimely DPI penalty on Devin Sanchez, but it’s simply not enough.

Final Score: Ohio State 31, Indiana 24.

The game starts as a painful flashback to Ohio State’s last three losses for many OSU fans, causing a few minor mental breakdowns in the Substack chat. But it ends with Ohio State winning the way the Buckeyes couldn’t a year ago.

Sayin is brilliant, the defense gets timely stops, and the offensive line, well, they do just enough. Go Bucks and thank you Bill and Doug for the opportunity to write this. (Editor’s note: You’re welcome. I love the subscriber game theories.)

Game theory from Doug

Pick: Ohio State 28, Indiana 17

I studied three Indiana games this week — last year’s Big Ten Championship, and the Northwestern and Nebraska games this season — and came away thinking the Hoosiers could have, and maybe should have, lost them all.

I’m expecting the Buckeyes to put a lot of this game on Jermaine Mathews and Devin Sanchez to hold up in coverage on Nick Marsh and Charlie Becker. Those Indiana receivers combine to average 10 catches and 176 yards per game, and they’ll win their share of battles. But I’m envisioning some big pass breakups from the OSU corners on third down.

Indiana was the best in the nation on third down last year, converting 56.5 percent. The Hoosiers were 6 of 13 vs. Ohio State. This season, Indiana is converting 45.3 percent, and they were 1 of 10 against Nebraska last week. Envision something like 4 of 12 on third down for the Hoosiers in this game.

I think the Buckeyes can pressure Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover, who has played well in Indiana’s system but I’m not sure can do much outside the system. According to PFF, Hoover has been pressured the least of any Big Ten QB, less than 20 percent of the time. Matt Patricia should dial up some pressures, and while I don’t think it’ll mean Hoover will throw his first interception of the season, I could see his completion percentage hovering around 50 percent. He was 12 of 22 against Nebraska last week. I could see something like 16 of 30.

Offensively, the OSU passing game should lead the way. Nebraska receiver Jacory Barney had nine catches for 108 yards against Indiana last week. Northwestern tight end Luke Dehnicke had seven catches for 140 yards earlier in the year. I don’t think the Hoosiers will have an answer for Jeremiah Smith, and Julian Sayin should target him relentlessly. I’ll say 10 catches on 15 targets for 180 yards and a score for Smith, and the Hoosiers will feel his presence on every snap.

I loved Brandon’s Reverse Texas theory, but I actually see Ohio State in control all day. Early OSU drives for touchdowns while the Hoosiers are forced to punt on three of their first four drives, with a big Indiana play creating a score on the other drive.

Up 14-7, I’ll bite on another two-minute drill touchdown for the Buckeyes and a 21-7 halftime lead. After some halftime adjustments by the Hoosiers, the OSU offense stalls early in the second half while Indiana adds a field goal.

Needing a fourth-quarter drive before the game turns against them, the Buckeyes deliver behind Sayin a Smith for a 28-10 lead, and Indiana adds a late touchdown for a 28-17 final. But the Buckeyes look like the better team all day and are never really threatened. And after they win, they’ll admit they wanted revenge.

COLUMBUS — Ohio State and Indiana aren’t the same teams that played in the Big Ten Championship last season, obviously, and that message has been clearly inserted into Ohio State’s talking points this week.

OSU cornerback Devin Sanchez went out of his way to say that in an answer to a question Wednesday night that was only tangentially about last year’s loss.

“It's a completely different team, not the same team as last year, different quarterback, different receivers,” Sanchez said.

These teams aren’t actually completely different. They’re half different.

Looking at the players who took part in at least 25 percent of the snaps in this matchup last year, Ohio State had 26 of those players and Indiana had 29.

Thirteen of those Buckeyes should play Saturday, and 13 of those Hoosiers should play Saturday.

Among the 22 starters from each team last year, Ohio State should have nine of those players starting Saturday and Indiana should have 11. The Buckeyes would have 10 if starting offensive lineman Austin Siereveld wasn’t out for Saturday with an illness.

In some ways, though, these teams are still defined by who they’ve had to replace this season. The Buckeyes lost 11 players to the NFL Draft, including eight picked in the first three rounds. The Hoosiers lost eight players to the draft, including four taken in the first three rounds.

Last season, the Buckeyes and Hoosiers also met when they were fully formed, with the regular season behind them. They were a combined 24-0, the only undefeated teams in the nation and ranked at the top of the polls. As we mentioned on Wednesday’s show, the stats for Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover right now are similar to where Fernando Mendoza was statistically last year through six games. But by the end of the season, Mendoza was on his way to the Heisman Trophy.

Hoover may have a similar second half of this regular season. But right now, with the Buckeyes taking a loss and the Hoosiers escaping one-score wins over Northwestern and Nebraska, both programs are still finding themselves. And they’re still making up for talent that went out the door.

So reminding ourselves of what these teams were last season, and addressing how they’ve replaced who left, isn’t a bad way to analyze Saturday’s matchup.

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First up, Bill tackles the Ohio State offense vs. the Indiana defense.

Then Doug addresses the Indiana offense vs. the Ohio State defense.

After the analysis comes the game predictions, then it’s Whatcha on marinated chicken, pumpkin sourdough, Trader Joe’s vibes, The Prestige, plays turned into movies, Bill’s long hair and pajamas.

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